Spatial determinants of productivity growth on agri‐food Spanish firms: a comparison between cooperatives and investor‐owned firms

This study analyses the effect of the spatial factor, location, and interaction effects among peer companies, on the productivity growth of agri‐food companies in Spain. With this aim, we build a productivity growth index and apply a multiequational Seemingly Unrelated Regression on a sample of 344 Spanish cooperatives and investor‐owned firms for the period 2010–2012. Our findings show that agri‐food firms are influenced by spatial factors finding interesting differences between cooperatives and investor‐owned firms. With regard to the geographical location, cooperatives in the western of Spain show higher productivity growth rates, whereas investor‐owned firms in the northeast of Spain present better results. The interaction effect among closer peer companies is also a relevant factor to determine the productivity growth in agri‐food companies. This factor is more relevant for cooperatives than for investor‐owned firms.     

Measuring extreme risk spillovers across international stock markets: A quantile variance decomposition analysis

This paper proposes a quantile variance decomposition framework for measuring extreme risk spillover effects across international stock markets. The framework extends the spillover index approach suggested by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) using a quantile regression analysis instead of the ordinary least squares estimation. Thus, the framework provides a new tool for further study into the extreme risk spillover effects. The model is applied to G7 and BRICS stock markets, from which new insights emerged as to the extreme risk spillovers across G7 and BRICS stock markets, and revealed how extreme risk spillover across developed and emerging stock markets. These findings have important implications for market regulators.     

闽侯县闲置农地生态安全评价研究

[目的]根据闽侯县农用地闲置情况,结合当地社会经济及生态环境发展情况,深入分析闽侯县闲置农地的生态安全发展水平。[方法]建立闽侯县闲置农地生态安全评价指标体系,分别从农村垃圾处理点数量、财政支农资金、外部进入农村投资、农业生产总值、种粮补贴、自然灾害、农业技术水平、农村生物的多样性程度、农村家庭收入结构、农村生态补偿金额、农地的整理规模及环保支出占GDP比重共确定12个指标进行深入研究,运用普通最小二乘法对设计的多元线性回归模型进行回归,进一步对闽侯县闲置农地的生态安全水平进行评价。[结果]农村垃圾处理点数量、财政支农资金、种粮补贴、环保支出占GDP比重、生态补偿金额、生物多样性程度对闽侯县闲置农地生态安全水平起到促进作用,呈正相关趋势;自然灾害则与闲置农地生态安全水平呈负相关趋势。[结论]整体看来,闽侯县闲置农地的生态安全水平主要受到当地经济、环境及生态基础三大因素的影响。     

Entrepreneurial innovativeness and growth ambitions in thick vs. thin regional innovation systems

Research in economic geography has paid increasing attention to regional innovation systems (RISs) as a potential vehicle for growth and development. Yet despite an increasing amount of research studying RISs in particular and economic regions in general, we have limited knowledge about their influence on entrepreneurs and entrepreneurship. We respond to this knowledge gap and study if entrepreneurs’ localization in thick vs. thin RISs affects their innovativeness and growth ambitions. Thick RISs are predominately urbanized spaces that include organizations of higher-level education, R&D intensive milieus, and an ample industry sector, while thin RISs to a lesser degree encompass these features. Empirically, we analyse 870–917 entrepreneurial firms in Agder of Southern Norway. Based on trade and labour markets, as defined by the EU’s classification of local administrative units (LAU1), we identify two thick and six thin RISs in Agder. Econometric analyses show that entrepreneurs located in thick RISs are more innovative than entrepreneurs located in thin RISs, but there are no significant differences concerning entrepreneurs’ growth ambitions. In light of our findings, we discuss the potential agency role played by entrepreneurial firms at a micro level on path dependent features of RISs at a macro level.     

重庆市乡村旅游资源空间特征及其与乡村振兴关系研究

[目的]探究重庆市乡村旅游资源的结构类型和空间特征,分析乡村旅游资源数量与乡村振兴之间的关系,对重庆市乡村旅游产业发展和促进乡村振兴具有指导意义。[方法]文章利用GIS技术定量分析重庆市乡村旅游资源的空间分布特征,通过空间分布模型探究乡村旅游资源空间分布的聚集程度,利用地理联系率探析人口规模和经济发展水平与乡村旅游资源分布的配合度。采用回归模型从整体上对重庆市乡村旅游资源数量与乡村振兴的关系进行分析,利用Pearson相关系数对不同经济发展区域关系进行研究,试图得到乡村旅游资源数量与乡村振兴的辩证关系。[结果]重庆市乡村旅游资源具有4种类型,农事体验类所占的比重最大,达到43.46%,乡村文化类所占比重最低为2.30%。乡村旅游空间布局特征结果表明重庆市4种乡村旅游类型在空间上的分布存在较大的区域差异,都呈现集中分布, 4种类型的景点与人口和经济的配合度较高。回归分析结果表明,乡村旅游资源数量与休闲农业和乡村旅游接待人次、农村卫生厕所普及率、村综合性文化服务中心覆盖率、县级以上文明村和乡镇占比和农村居民人均纯收入之间存在均衡关系。Pearson相关性分析结果表明除休闲农业和乡村旅游接待人次外,乡村旅游资源数量仅与农村居民人均纯收入之间存在低度相关性,不同经济区相关系数差异较大。[结论]综合以上研究结果,乡村旅游资源的空间分布特征既受当地经济发展的影响,同时又促进当地经济的发展,表明重庆市乡村旅游资源对乡村振兴具有一定的促进作用。建议在今后的发展中应拓展乡村旅游类型,提高乡村文化类景点的数量和比重,促进重庆市乡村旅游产业的均衡发展,实现不同经济区乡村经济的协调发展。     

Spatio-temporal probabilistic forecasting of wind power for multiple farms: A copula-based hybrid model

Accurate probabilistic forecasting of wind power output is critical to maximizing network integration of this clean energy source. There is a large literature on temporal modeling of wind power forecasting, but considerably less work combining spatial dependence into the forecasting framework. Through the careful consideration of the temporal modeling component, complemented by support vector regression of the temporal model residuals, this work demonstrates that a DVINE copula model most accurately represents the residual spatial dependence. Additionally, this work proposes a complete set of validation mechanisms for multi-h-step forecasts that, when considered together, comprehensively evaluate accuracy. The model and validation mechanisms are demonstrated in two case studies, totaling ten wind farms in the Texas electric grid. The proposed method outperforms baseline and competitive models, with an average Continuous Ranked Probability Score of less than 0.15 for individual farms, and an average Energy Score of less than 0.35 for multiple farms, over the 24-hour-ahead horizon. Results show the model’s ability to replicate the power output dynamics through calibrated and sharp predictive densities.     

基于MGB理论的农户参与乡村旅游影响因素研究——以福州三个地区为例

基于目标导向行为理论,以249份调研数据为依据,运用二元Logistic回归模型对农户参与乡村旅游情感影响因素进行分析,得出农户的行为态度、主观规范、正面预期情绪和感知行为控制通过行为欲望对行为意向具有积极的正向影响,而负面情绪通过行为欲望对其参与乡村旅游行为意向具有消极影响。提出要强化情感效应,重视正向情绪引导;完善乡村旅游引导和利益共享机制,保障农户获得实质性经济收益;把握乡村原生态,消除农户抵触心理。     

基于政策情景的家庭乘用车能源回弹效应研究 ——来自长株潭城市群的调查数据

基于长株潭城市群的调查数据,测算在燃料消耗量为5.0L/100km情景下家庭乘用车的直接能源回弹效应,并采用二分类Logistic法分析影响家庭乘用车直接能源回弹效应的因素.结果表明:长株潭城市群家庭乘用车平均直接能源回弹效应为20%;不同居民家庭乘用车的直接能源回弹效应差别较大,存在超级节能、零回弹、部分回弹和回火效应;户主受教育水平、收入水平、购买新车意愿、车辆行驶里程、出行偏好等因素对家庭乘用车超级节能和零回弹效应影响显著.     

How should we estimate value-relevance models? Insights from European data

We study the consequences of unobserved heterogeneity when employing different econometric methods in the estimation of two major value-relevance models: the Price Regression Model (PRM) and the Return Regression Model (RRM). Leveraging a large panel data set of European listed companies, we first demonstrate that robust Hausman tests and Breusch-Pagan Lagrange Multiplier tests are of fundamental importance to choose correctly among a fixed-effects model, a random-effects model, or a pooled OLS model. Second, we provide evidence that replacing firm fixed-effects with country and industry fixed-effects can lead to large differences in the magnitude of the key coefficients, with serious consequences for the interpretation of the effect of changes in earnings and book values per share on firm value. Finally, we offer recommendations to applied researchers aiming to improve the robustness of their econometric strategy.     

The Drivers of Sovereign CDS Spread Changes: Local Versus Global Factors

We use daily data for a panel of 34 countries to investigate regional differences in sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) spread determinants and the significance of local versus global market factors. Similar to prior studies, we find a high level of commonality among CDS spreads, but our results show that this effect is stronger in Latin American CDS. The results of our quantile panel regression model show that although global forces drive spreads across the conditional distribution, changes in credit ratings are significant in explaining CDS spreads only in the upper quantiles. We also confirm the existence of regional differences in spread determinants.